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South Africa’s Economy Stumbles: Technical Recession Looms Amidst Challenges

Published by
Martin du Toit
  1. South Africa’s economy is showing signs of entering a technical recession, as evidenced by a second consecutive quarterly contraction in the BankservAfrica Economic Transactions Index (BETI).
  2. Contributing factors to the nation’s economic struggles include severe power cuts, high inflation, interest rate hikes, and deteriorating logistics infrastructure.
  3. A recession could hinder South Africa’s efforts to tackle unemployment, manage national debt, and narrow the budget deficit, prolonging the nation’s economic challenges.

South Africa’s economy is showing signs of entering a technical recession, as interbank payment data reveals a second consecutive quarterly contraction. The BankservAfrica Economic Transactions Index (BETI), an early indicator of economic activity, declined by 1.7% in Q1 2023 compared to the previous quarter. This contradicts the median estimate from a Bloomberg survey of analysts, which predicted a modest 0.2% growth in quarterly gross domestic product (GDP).

Multiple factors are contributing to South Africa’s economic woes, including severe power cuts, a 50 basis-point interest rate hike last month, and persistently high inflation. According to independent economist Elize Kruger, these issues are “holding the economy at ransom.” Additionally, the nation’s deteriorating logistics infrastructure is further stifling economic activity.

As the BETI suggests a negative quarter-on-quarter figure for Q1 2023, Kruger warns that South Africa could be on the brink of a technical recession. This follows a 1.3% GDP contraction in the final quarter of 2022. Kruger highlights the breadth of the economic weakness, stating that “most sectors [are] under severe pressure.”

South Africa’s manufacturing sector has experienced a 5.2% annual decline in production in February, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline and the steepest drop since April 2022. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global to measure private sector performance, fell to 49.7 last month, indicating a contraction.

Entering a recession could significantly impact South Africa’s efforts to address the 32.7% unemployment rate, manage national debt, and narrow the budget deficit more quickly. Treasury estimates suggest a decline in the consolidated budget shortfall to 3.2% by 2025-26, down from 4.2% in the fiscal year ending March 2023.

Despite recent actions and project announcements in the energy and transport sectors, Kruger cautions South Africans to brace for “more of the same” for a longer period than initially expected. The nation’s struggle to recover from the current economic challenges underscores the urgent need for effective solutions and policy interventions to overcome these obstacles and restore growth.

Table 1: Key Economic Indicators in South Africa

IndicatorValue/RatePeriodSource/Details
BankservAfrica Economic Transactions Index (BETI)-1.7%Q1 2023 compared to previous quarterEarly indicator of economic activity
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)0.2%Q1 2023 (predicted)Median estimate from Bloomberg survey
GDP Contraction-1.3%Q4 2022
Interest Rate Hike50 basis pointsLast month
Unemployment Rate32.7%
Consolidated Budget Shortfall4.2%Fiscal year through March 2023Treasury estimates
Forecasted Budget Shortfall3.2%2025-26Treasury estimates
Annual Manufacturing Production Decline-5.2%FebruaryFourth consecutive month of decline
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)49.7Last monthS&P Global; below 50 signals contraction
Caption: Table 1 provides an overview of key economic indicators in South Africa, illustrating the nation’s current economic challenges and potential recession.

Martin du Toit

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Published by
Martin du Toit

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